"Going back to pre-Ukraine supplemental procurement levels would see the USG buying only a small fraction of the US commercial SAR capacity available; hardly enough to support combat operations or sustain a healthy US industrial base," said David Gauthier.
The problem lies within the Excluded Technology List (ELT), a list of tech that is not eligible for transfer under the existing AUKUS exemptions.
Knowing when to build on commercial systems and when to develop something new can be the difference between parity and information dominance.
Canberra and Washington "have an unparalleled opportunity to fashion broader, stronger, and multilayered partnerships," writes Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Foundation. "But this, in turn, will require self-reflection, not just cheerleading."
"[W]e won't be able to sell the premium technology, which means we'll be out competed by [Finland's] ICEYE and other competitors in the global market," Umbra's Jason Mallare told Breaking Defense.
"The three new rules ... recalibrate our approach to export controls," a senior Commerce Department official said. "These changes will offer relief to US companies and they'll increase innovation without compromising the critical technologies that keep our nation safe."
RTX voluntarily disclosed what the State Department says is roughly 750, largely inadvertent, violations of ITAR export rules.
Reducing cognitive overload on warfighters while improving “time to trust” for autonomous systems is a matter of design.
"Early indications are that the 3 countries are missing an opportunity to craft a shared defense export control framework devoid of the well-understood structural problems associated with the ITAR," the US Studies Centrre report's authors write.
This US ITAR reform would reduce by "close to, or slightly over 900 export permits required under our export controls from Australia to the US and the UK, with a value of around $5 billion AUD a year," an Australian defense official said.
In this op-ed, Mohammed Soliman and Elliot Silverberg make the case for why Canada should be brought into AUKUS Pillar II.